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El Niño 2018-19: Historical Impact Analysis

October 2018

Dr. Nicholas Klingaman and Dr. Will Keat
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading


Full report for download:

DFID_El Niño_2018_Historical Impact Analysis (University of Reading)


International weather forecasting centres agree that El Niño conditions are likely to develop in
the Pacific in late autumn 2018. A weak to moderate El Niño event is expected to reach its
peak intensity in late 2018 and early 2019. El Niño events are a significant perturbation, or
‘kick’, to the climate system and can affect weather patterns globally. This report analyses El
Niño events over the last 35 years and aims to identify regions where changes in temperature
and rainfall are likely. Detailed analysis of El Niño impacts is presented only for DFID
countries of interest.

This analysis is based on previous, analogous El Niño events; it is not a prediction for this year.
No two El Niño events will be the same – the timing and magnitude of events differs
considerably. More importantly, no two El Niño events lead to the same effects; other local
physical, social and economic factors lead to event-to-event variations in effects. Therefore, the
timings, locations and magnitudes of effects stated in this report should be interpreted with
caution; the reader should account for these sources of uncertainty in any preparedness

As of the writing of this report, no El Niño event has formed in 2018. It is important that the
information used in this report is used only for planning purposes. Readers should monitor
information from national meteorological services for declarations of El Niño conditions.

For further information please contact Richard Heap, Project Manager (richard.heap@lotb-resilience.org)



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